Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. ET. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. 4. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. 2020 Election (1210) Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. They're just facts about the vote. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. 7. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. What results did you discover? But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. hide caption. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Found an error on our site? Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Ron Elving . Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Nobody forgot about politics.". Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Hillary Clinton (578) An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. 9. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. (The highest value being again 66.1%). More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Still, the state's worth watching. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Their concerns are real. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. But it's still indicative of widespread support. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. It's happened before. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Team up with others in your region, and help out by It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Their hopes are real. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Read about our approach to external linking. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Really stop reading. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". University of New Hampshire . According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). It's the wrong question. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 03:30. Watauga has gone for. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. In 2020, a single. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Contributors wanted They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. First, what are bellwether counties? If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. "They followed through the whole four years. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. (subject to censorship). Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Demographics (84) They simply vote on merit. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred.
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